At the time of this writing, Tesla is still alive and going balls-to-the-walls with “Robo Taxis” ¹. But in my very very humble opinion (I am a braggart, but this time, I am humble enough to write this on my 0 visibility blog), Thunderf00t’s timeline of 3 years to bankruptcy² seems about right, or maybe, not optimistic enough. I am speaking from experience here. Both in 10000ft view and down to the being inside a Tesla view. For more concrete explaination, let us start with the latter.

Tesla Hands On View – 2018 Model 3 Long Range

In 2018 I sold my then Lexus CT200h and bought a Model 3 Long Range. Already I noticed, but brushed off the following:

• Small: No noise insulation compared to Lexus. I can hear all the wind. My Lexus is basically a Prius³ in disguise so engine noise is non-existent.
• Medium: Panel gaps galore. This is consistent with the two Model 3 I have driven, and honestly every time I go by a Tesla store.
• Big (City Driving): They claim that the range is 500ish km. During weekdays, I drive 10km to work and back with a few groceries here and there (say max 20km as it is just a city).
  • Work: 10km x 2 (back and forth) x 5 = 100km
  • Leisure/Errands: 20km x 2 (back and forth) x 2 (say, 2 errands here and there) = 40km
  • So, 140km. Let us round that up to 200km.
  • As I used to live in an apartment, I have to charge mid-week… Ok. You might brush this off as sentry mode + HVAC, but come on, that is wayyyy of from city driving.
• Big (Highway Driving): To say I drive a lot in a weekend… is an understatement for early-20s me. I clock in a minimum of 1000km.
  • Never 500km or even close. Vancouver, BC to Hope, BC of 150km, I am way below 50% from 90%.
  • From my last blog entry on BMW iX vs Tesla Model X, I can go from my home to Regina, SK (170km) and still have 60% at way higher highway speeds since there is zero traffic.
  • I imagine, if I was in Vancouver with BMW iX, where traffic on TC-1 doesn’t clear up until shmucks go to their Cultus Lake (you cannot fuck with me on this, I know the fucking pattern as I drive way more than you), I would easily arrive with 70% or higher.

I didn’t have FSD then, nor does it exist so I cannot comment here. But the range discrepancy itself is already an SEC-eligible case (I am not a lawyer, but if you are just city-driving 150km but need to charge in the middle, come the fuck on).

We also rented Model 3 Standard Range (with heat pump) to drive from London, UK to Edinburgh, UK and back to the same effect.

Tesla Hands On View – 2021 Model X Long Range Plus

Fast forward 2 years, in December 2020, we ordered the last non-refreshed 2021 Long Range Plus delivered in Vancouver. This is before all Model X and Model S production stopped for a few months or a year (I forgot, but I am sure everyone who follows this space remembers). Being just out of University, I didn’t really have any perspective. I thought Lexus CT200h reliability and build quality were just a “one of”. An exception, instead of the rule in the modern auto industry.

Did anything improved?

… Hard nope.

• Same panel gaps galore.⁴
• Interior screen have rubber sticking in.
• Overoptimistic range estimates… even in Summer at highway speeds (in case someone brings up heat pump on pre-refreshed models).

This time though we bought the FSD, paying an equivalent of 8K USD at the time. Let us dive into that.

FSD – Lie to Promise to Lie

Autopilot was the reason I switched to Teslas in the first place. Back in 2017, I was road-tripping with my Lexus CT200h like there is no tomorrow. I would take my wife (then girlfriend) to different part of the States. I was 23 and I could do anything. Drive from Vancouver to San Diego in a day. Vancouver to Calgary. The joke in the office was that I could be in the middle of Canada or America in a weekend. Sleep was optional.

Anyways, that was the end of my prime energy (pun intended). I need some driving assist. Searching the web, Tesla came up. Not much competition back then. In 2018, we were the first to buy the Model 3.

Why Lie to Promise to Lie?

• Lie₁: First FSD demo that mesmerised a lot of us, was a lie⁵. Revealed in subpoenas. Elon spearhead the lie. The demo video was after many tries. It even crashed into someone’s lawn at some point.
• Promise: Just like other grifters, the best ones believe their own lies. I believe Elon believes in his own lies and catch up with them later. It worked for electric cars. Unfortunately for FSD, he cannot catch up with it.
• Lie₂: April 2024 and May 2024. Last 2 months of this writing, seams have started to break in Tesla.
  • Less demand.
  • Abandoned cheap car.
  • Fired new car division.
  • Fired all supercharger division.
  • Firing of factory workers.
  • Doubling down on RoboTaxi lie to pump it up more.

He knows Tesla is ~200 Billion worth more than Toyota (at the time of this writing May 8, 2024), and delivers only 1/5th of the cars… and decreasing… fast. The current valuation cannot simply be justified by just cars. He needs to pump being a tech company. An AI hype company. A RoboTaxi one at that.

10K ft View

I grew up in a cult. My parents are members of some weird Jesus shit that honestly put a damper on our relationship since I left in high school. I feel the same vibe when I am in a marketing event. Remember Koney? Every time everyone is spouting something suddenly that I am not seeing in my sober reality, I know it is some sort of mass hysteria. Don’t care if you think I am wrong or not, this has been one of my true north and has guided me well.

What I am trying to say is, at this point, Tesla is a cult. The endless templated message of “Have you tried Version X.Y? It is mindblowing.” when I was on the bleeding edge of FSD since 2021. Testing it, in I bet, dozens of thousands more miles than those proselytizers. Reality does not match the sentiment they are pushing. I have driven thousands of km on the new Model 3 in our UK trip, and the phantom brake is even worse, thanks to the vision approach.

It is ok to be optimistic until each bug is fixed, it moves the problem in my 1000km route (imagine 250km of road north, south, east, west that I frequently cause… I love being on the road), from one 100km part to the next.

• Switching phantom brake from NN state, to another.
• Switching going the opposite lane on a undivided stretch of road to another.
• Fixing the hugging the center to hugging the ditch.
• And so on….

They say an FSD is like a 15-year-old driver. No. That is an insult to the human race. A 15-year-old does not need billions of miles of training to make a left turn. We actually have intelligence. NN emulates intelligence, but handling edge cases, demands more NN nodes, demands more hardware, then more edge cases. A vicious cycle, just to emulate, not actually perform intelligence.

I have a Tesla that needs some servicing since it now has 140K km in 3 years (I switch between this and BMW iX, currently 40K km, so I don’t run out of warranty on iX too fast). I won’t totally enjoy the fall.

But I want my parents eyes to open one day (no chance) when somehow their church fall.

I want the Tesla cultist to open their eyes one day.

Sources

1. https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-going-all-in-on-robotaxis/ ↩︎
2. https://youtu.be/6Hje7h_WVkY?si=9WkG2pJ7VEwtWbWz ↩︎
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lexus_CT ↩︎
4. https://youtu.be/hDt12LxVfwI ↩︎
5. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-autopilot-probe-us-prosecutors-focus-securities-wire-fraud-2024-05-08/ ↩︎